Machinery & Energetics

In the study of regularities of the course of events-dangers of the event-the causes, the events, the investigation on various production processes of operation of the IES at the granaries of agricultural enterprises it is established that in each case the event a dangerous situation is formed by the intersection of a certain number of compatible events. In each individual thread there are always events, such as cause a dangerous situation, critical situation and consequence, and between them can be a certain amount of intermediate events. Important to assess the significance of possible consequences in each thread is the determination of the probability of each events that enter into its composition. This is especially true for determining the probability of the primary (base) eventcauses, which begins with the specified stream flow events. Given the experience of other authors and our own research, the probability of basic events defined according to expert evaluations of a certain number of identical mobile power tools, work areas, separate mechanisms, tools and the like. Thus in this set of these objects is determined by the initial amount of existing hazards and the number of examined objects, and determine the probability of the corresponding basic events. In the future, the definition of probability of occurrence of the other events implemented by the laws of their intersection or Union, or by the logic-simulation of the possibility of events of the investigation. Thus obtained statistical data shall be processed and determined by the mathematical expectation of the possibility of events that characterizes the condition of danger from one or a certain number of dangerous factors of the object.

modeling, risk, manufacture, process, granary